Phoenix – A stark federal proposal for Colorado River cuts could slash Arizona's share by 77%, hammering the Central Arizona Project (CAP) canal that quenches Phoenix, Tucson, and surrounding farms—and forcing a painful rethink of the state's water future.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's draft options, circulating amid stalled talks, paint a grim picture: under one "basic coordination" scenario, CAP deliveries could plummet from 1.5 million acre-feet to just 400,000—a 73–77% reduction, with California largely spared and Nevada taking minimal hits. CAP General Manager Brenda Burman warned, "These levels are very, very difficult and perhaps devastating for Arizona... It looks like they are trying to wipe us off the map."
Historical Deal Bites Back
Arizona's junior water rights, locked in by the 1968 Colorado River Basin Project Act to build CAP, mean it absorbs shortages first. Already down 30% under Tier 1 cuts, further slashes would hit Pinal County agriculture hardest, push Phoenix and Tucson toward groundwater and reuse, and squeeze 11 tribes dependent on CAP.
State leaders are livid. Gov. Katie Hobbs said, "The Colorado River is essential to Arizona's future. Alongside CA and NV, we've offered a fair deal—but we won't accept a plan that balances the river on Arizona's shoulders alone." Arizona's negotiators proposed a 27% shared cut, rejecting what they call "Arizona‑pays‑for‑everything" math.
"Wipe Us Off the Map"
Burman emphasized the human stakes: "CAP serves 80% of Arizona's population—millions of people, farms, and tribes. A 77% cut isn't sustainable; it's existential." Critics note California's senior rights shield it, while Arizona's growth makes it a target despite aggressive conservation.
Hobbs' budget adds a Colorado River Protection Fund for buys and mitigation, but experts say without basin‑wide agreement by 2026, Reclamation could impose harsh options unilaterally.
Path Forward?
Arizona pushes for equitable cuts, more storage credits, and tribal protections. As Burman put it, "We've led on conservation—now the feds and Upper Basin must step up, or Phoenix and Tucson face a water reckoning no one wants." With Lake Mead at critically low levels, the clock ticks toward transformative change—or catastrophe—for Arizona's urban heart.
Verde River Lifeline?
If deep CAP cuts materialize, Arizona could pivot harder to the Verde
River system, which supplies Scottsdale, Phoenix, and Glendale via the
Horseshoe Reservoir and Salt-Verde canal network. Already a key backup
holding senior rights, the Verde's flows could ramp up through new
diversions and storage—but experts warn overuse risks depleting its
fragile watershed, sparking fights with downstream users and tribes like
the Yavapai-Apache. Burman noted, "The Verde buys time, but it's no
silver bullet—we'd need massive infrastructure and conservation to avoid
trading one crisis for another."