Northern Arizona is experiencing an unusual and striking “false spring” this
winter, as desert agaves send up bloom stalks months early, mesquite
trees leaf out and Cottonwood hillsides flush green with cool‑season
grasses normally associated with March or April. The out‑of‑season
growth reflects an unusual run of mild temperatures and ample moisture,
which has coaxed many plants out of dormancy even as the calendar still
says mid‑winter.
What a false spring means
Agaves blooming in winter
Agaves usually save their towering bloom stalks for warmer months, but the
combination of stored energy in mature plants and this winter’s soft,
wet conditions is triggering flowering now. While the blooms are
visually dramatic, they may face more frequent frost events and fewer
active pollinators than they would in a typical spring.
Early green-up of grasses
Cool‑season grasses are taking full advantage of moist soils and mild daytime
temperatures, creating a carpet of green more typical of early spring
than deep winter. If the pattern shifts back to freezing nights or a dry
spell, these grasses can be set back or stressed, forcing them to
regrow again when true spring arrives.
Risks behind the beauty
False spring conditions increase the risk of freeze damage to new growth,
especially if a hard cold front arrives after plants have broken
dormancy. They can also disrupt natural timing between plants and
wildlife, as flowers, insects, and migrating birds fall out of sync when
seasons effectively “start” at different times.
Climate change unfolding
Northern Arizona’s “false spring” is unfolding against a backdrop of a changing
climate that is already reshaping the region’s long‑familiar pattern of
roughly 17 inches of annual precipitation and summer‑dominated monsoon
rains. Warmer temperatures increase the atmosphere’s capacity to hold
moisture, which can intensify heavy downpours when storms do form, even
as long‑term warming alters snowpack, runoff timing, and the reliability
of traditional monsoon seasons.
A wetter weather pattern
If northern Arizona shifts into a persistently wetter climate regime, the
timing and form of that moisture will matter as much as the totals, with
more winter rain and less dependable high‑elevation snow altering how
water soaks into soils and recharges aquifers. A wetter but warmer
pattern could favor more frequent “false springs,” longer growing
seasons, and thicker grass and shrub cover, which might boost plant
productivity in the short term but also increase fuel loads for wildfire
when hotter, drier spells return.
Chad Graf, 30 year resident, Sedona night sky tour guide and avid outdoorsman commented "It's the
wettest, warmest and cloudiest fall and now winter I have ever seen."
